Monaco Data Observatory · SECP Methodology

Empirical Opportunity Register · Reviewed

Methodological control system used to determine when a category of the Soft Exclusion Coding Protocol (SECP) can be assessed in an empirically relevant manner.

The analysis does not assume that all twelve mechanisms can be observed in every space. Each combination of spatial case and SECP category is first classified according to whether an adequate documentary basis is available for its assessment.

Opportunity ≠ Occurrence. A category being classified as Opportunity = YES means that it can be assessed in that case. It does not mean that the mechanism has been confirmed.

Methodological Principle

Absence of Observation ≠ Absence of Mechanism

A central challenge in observational analysis is distinguishing between the empirical absence of a mechanism and the absence of an adequate opportunity to assess it.

The Observation Opportunities system introduces this distinction before SECP rates are calculated. Accordingly, a category enters the normalized denominator only when the case documentation provides a specific basis for assessing it.

The lack of an opportunity is not converted into a zero score or a confirmed absence of the mechanism. Likewise, the availability of an opportunity does not itself constitute evidence of presence.

Normalization Rule

Building the SECP Denominator

The denominator for each category does not automatically correspond to all 75 cases. It is constructed solely from cases classified and reviewed as Opportunity = YES.

The UNCERTAIN and NO combinations are excluded from the denominator. Normalization is performed independently for each of the twelve categories.

Case-Level Example

Place du Casino · VAM-MC-001

This case illustrates why opportunity classification and empirical confirmation must be kept separate. The twelve categories were first assessed for the existence of a relevant observational basis.

Empirical Review of the YES Opportunities

The seven YES opportunities were reviewed. Presence of the mechanism was confirmed for SE4, SE5, SE7, SE8 and SE9. By contrast, SE10 and SE12 were empirically assessable categories, but their presence was not confirmed in the final register.

Observation Bias

Reducing Opportunity-Structure Bias

Without an explicit opportunity structure, a category assessable in only a few contexts could appear artificially infrequent. Conversely, a category applicable to numerous cases would simply have more opportunities to be detected.

Opportunity-based normalization allows descriptive comparisons between categories with different observational bases and prevents situations in which a mechanism could not be adequately assessed from being treated as empirical absences.

This procedure does not eliminate all potential observational biases, but it makes one of their main sources explicit: the unequal observability of mechanisms within the corpus.

Uncertainty

UNCERTAIN as Methodological Information

UNCERTAIN does not represent an intermediate category between presence and absence.

It indicates that the setting provides a potential basis for assessing the mechanism, but the final documentary design does not provide specifically identified evidence that would justify inclusion in the YES denominator.

Keeping these combinations distinct preserves information about the limits of observability within the corpus without artificially turning them into negative findings.

Opportunity-Based SECP

From Denominator to Empirical Result

Once the YES opportunities have been established and reviewed, empirical decisions distinguish between confirmed presence and absence of confirmation within the set that can actually be assessed.

The final register contains 180 reviewed YES assessments and 121 confirmed occurrences. Category-specific rates are published in SECP Data.

Open SECP Data →

Research Connections

SECP Data    ·    Empirical Validation    ·    VAM Data    ·    SECP Overview